“Regular emails help change your attitude from reactive to proactive. And with our busy lifestyles, having that gentle reminder may help us keep an eye on the prize,” says Rick Hall, RD, who serves on the advisory board for the Arizona Governor’s Council on Health, Physical Fitness, and Sports.
I remember reading about recurring patterns in stock market in the Stan Weinstein’s “Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets”. He is saying that most important pattern is “The Four-Year Presidential Cycle”. 2012 is an election year and this is a gentle reminder that based on analysis described in the Mr. Weinstein’s book, the year following the election is usually a disaster, no matter who is elected.
Behavior of Prices on Wall Street
Historically, the probabilities are strong that in the second year the bear market will continue until a bottom is reached around mid-year (as occurred in August 1982). The rest of year two is bullish, and then the third year of the presidential term is the best one of the cycle. The fourth year, which is the election year, is a choppy one, with weakness usually occurring in the first half and strength in the second half.
Over the past 100 years, this four-year cycle has unfolded with such unbelievable regularity that it almost seems as if the politicians are writing a script.
This data analysis was done not too long time ago, but what is going on in the 21st century? Below is a price chart for S&P 500 index for latest 12 years (3 presidential cycles). Well, I would say that two out of three are pretty close to the pattern described by Mr. Weinstein and current year is a “choppy one”. Something to keep in mind…
S&P 500 Historical Prices
——————————————–
* Chart Publication from Stan Weinstein’s “Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets”, originally from NY: Analysis Press, 1984, p. 4.
** Quotes from Stan Weinstein’s “Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets”.
Like this:
Tags: behavior of prices on wall street, presidential cycle, Stan Weinstein, stock market patterns
